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Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures through Sept. 26, traces how the Strait of Hormuz closure is driving oil-market disruption and adding pressure to fuel supplies, fertiliser shipments and harvests. The report also describes risks for European winter heating, though the scale of those effects and the conflict’s next steps remain uncertain.
The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic and contributing to pressure on fuel prices, fertiliser supplies and harvests, according to a Sept. 26 report by Polish writer Tom Wojcik. The report follows those effects from the Gulf to Europe, where it says the disruption is adding to concerns about winter heating.
Wojcik says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, followed by Iran’s closure of the strait. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, the report says. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil-supply disruption the market has experienced. A fragile ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it later broke down.
Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, up 19 percent in a month, reached about $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. On Sept. 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire lasting up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it, Wojcik says. He also cites a report that the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections.
The disruption is reaching beyond oil. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Wojcik also describes a poor potato outlook after heatwaves and drought hit European growers. Their organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade.
How Gulf Disruption Reaches Europe
The report links a distant maritime chokepoint to everyday costs and supply risks. Oil prices affect transport and production, while fertiliser shortages can lower later harvests. That timing means the food impact may emerge after the initial disruption, when crops planted with less or late-arriving fertiliser are harvested.
For Poland, Wojcik frames the stakes around a country that heats itself with coal and imported gas and is preparing for winter near a major war. The report’s wider point is that supply chains can transmit several pressures at once. It does not quantify how much the Hormuz closure will add to Polish heating bills or establish the likely severity of any winter shortage.
From Ceasefire to Supply Shock
The report describes a brief price reprieve during a fragile ceasefire in early summer, followed by renewed escalation. By September, oil prices had risen as the closure persisted. Another shipping route, the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, also faces disruption: Wojcik says Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during the month.
Other pressures compound the effects. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, roughly once every four days by the IEA’s count, according to the report. Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low, and Moscow has restricted fuel exports. These developments add strain to fuel markets already affected by the Gulf conflict.
Wojcik also distinguishes a reported French pump shortage from the official picture. On Sept. 20, 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. About nine in ten stations reported dry were TotalEnergies sites, where a price cap drew drivers and emptied tanks faster than they could be replenished, the report says.
“Scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Unclear Duration and Winter Costs
The duration of the closure is unknown, as is whether another ceasefire proposal will be made or accepted. The report says Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 road map. It cites a separate report about a possible resumption of bombing after the November midterm elections, but that remains a reported expectation rather than a confirmed military decision.
The precise effects on food prices, harvests and European heating supplies have yet to be established. The FAO warning points to possible yield losses, while the report does not provide a forecast for specific grocery prices or Polish household bills. In France, the official station figures also have limits: a site is counted as out only if it lacks every petrol grade or has no diesel.
Harvests and Winter Supply
Developments to watch include any change in tanker traffic through Hormuz, further diplomatic proposals and movements in oil prices. The effects of fertiliser scarcity should become clearer as late-2026 and 2027 harvests arrive. European energy supply and heating costs will also be important indicators as winter approaches; the report does not identify a specific next policy decision or forecast.
Key Questions
What is the Strait of Hormuz disruption?
Iran has kept the strait closed since March, according to Wojcik’s report. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Is France running out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage. On Sept. 20, 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel, with many of the affected sites belonging to TotalEnergies, according to the report.
What is known about winter heating in Poland?
Wojcik says Poland relies on coal and imported gas and raises winter heating as a concern. The report does not quantify likely household costs or confirm that Poland will face a heating shortage.
Source: hn
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